When do you think humanoids will largely replace manual labor?
Last week I saw the Neo Gama model on Product Hunt – humanoid for house chores.
Today, it is Protoclone and there are even more.
One model is pricy now, but a one-time investment may be cheaper long-term than ongoing salaries from the point of view of a company.
When do you think they will replace physical labour in most cases? (i.e. over 50%)
Which positions will be threatened by these humanoids first?
Which companies are investing in them first and the most?
Curious to see what you think about that. 🙂
Replies
Recap
People always overestimate what will change in the next two years but underestimate what will change in the next ten. Yes, I believe massive changes will happen in ten years-or even sooner.
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If we focus on technology improvements, it can happen anything but we are also overwhelmed by other events in life so it means we can lose the focus and track as well.
In about 20 years the soonest maybe? Or even less.. looking how it already happening in China, I'm afraid it will be much soon in many developed countries. But for me, in Indonesia, manual labor is still the main occupation of so many people here, and if we lose it to robots, it will be a one of Indonesia's dooms day, so for Indonesian, I think it will definitely take longer, let's say 60 years.
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What is your threat? AI? I saw in China the video how a robot attacked people. 😳
@busmark_w_nika My worry is about robots taking over jobs, especially in places like Indonesia where many still rely on manual work. It could cause big problems if it happens too fast. And the robot attacks in China are scary, but I think they’re rare. People will definitely reflects on the malfunction very fast and make sure it's not gonna happen again.
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@rani_zagita I hope you are right with those preventions from attacks! :D
I think it will happen gradually over 50 years. As you remember, there were no home robot vacuum cleaners before, but now they are in every apartment and cleaning is not a hassle. There are also robot mail delivery machines, self-driving cars, etc. BUT the more difficult the work for the robot, the longer it will take to make them. To move progress forward, it is necessary for all cities to have delivery robots, self-driving cars, flying drones... this is not yet the case and therefore humanoids will not replace people anytime soon, at least not in the near future. ;)
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"the more difficult the work for the robot, the longer it will take to make them." – this one answer calmed me down because you are right. Let's take spaceships – they are not perfect and we have been messing up with them for over 70 years.
https://www.unitree.com/g1 say no more. 🫳🎤 (these bots will end up racing to the bottom on price, at some point they will be $999 on aliexpress) At first batteries will burn up, privacy will be questioned, injuries will happen. And then EU will slide in and make lots of regulations of course. But people won't care. It's free labour ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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@sentry_co In China their bots can actually dance and cook, so we are not so far.
70 years from now, especially if it's bargain price made in China. or quality ones from Japan.
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@kilopolki I think it can be sooner 40 year :)
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@kilopolki @busmark_w_nika no more than ~20
I’ve noticed that more and more products are appearing on the market recently, which made me realize that it’s highly likely robots will replace humans in the future, especially those simple labor jobs, and it may happen at a rapid pace. Perhaps within the next 10 years, this vision could become a reality. The speed of technological development is always far beyond our imagination.